Feb. 1, 2024: Something unprecedented is happening in Earth orbit. In only a few short years, the satellite population has skyrocketed, more than doubling since 2020. In the past year alone, more satellites have been launched than during the first thirty years of the Space Age. Much of this activity is driven by SpaceX and its growing mega-constellation of Starlink internet satellites.

Environmentalists have raised many concerns about Starlink including light-pollution of the night sky, a potentially hazardous traffic jam in low-Earth orbit, and even ozone depletion. Copycat mega-constellations by other companies and countries will only multiply these concerns.

Now there’s a new reason to worry. According to a new study by Sierra Solter, megaconstellations could alter and weaken Earth’s magnetic field.

Solter is a graduate student at the University of Iceland, working on her PhD in plasma physics. She recently realized something overlooked by many senior colleagues: “More than 500,000 satellites are expected in decades ahead, primarily to build internet megaconstellations. Every satellite that goes up will eventually come down, disintegrating in Earth’s atmosphere. This will create a massive layer of conducting, electrically charged particles around our planet.”

To understand the scale of the problem, consider the following: If you gathered up every charged particle in Earth’s Van Allen Belts, their combined mass would be only 0.00018 kg. Other components of the magnetosphere such as the ring current and plasmasphere are even less massive. For comparison, “the mass of a second generation Starlink satellite is 1250 kilograms, all of which will become conductive debris when the satellite is eventually de-orbited,” says Solter.

Metal debris from a single deorbited Starlink satellite is 7 million times more massive than the Van Allen Belts. An entire megaconstellation is billions of times more massive. These ratios point to a big problem.

“The space industry is adding enormous amounts of material to the magnetosphere in comparison to natural levels of particulate matter,” says Solter. “Due to the conductive nature of the satellite debris, this may perturb or change things.”

There is already evidence of this process in action. A 2023 study by researchers using a high-altitude NASA aircraft found that 10% of aerosols in the stratosphere contain aluminum and other metals from disintegrating satellites and rocket stages. These particles are drifting down from “the ablation zone” 70 to 80 km above Earth’s surface where meteors and satellites burn up.

Solter decided to look for changes in the electrical properties of the ablation zone–and she found something. A NASA model of the upper atmosphere shows a sharp increase in the “Debye Length” just where satellites break apart when they deorbit:

“Debye Length” is a number that tells researchers how far an unbalanced electrical charge can be felt in conducting plasmas. The fact that it changes abruptly in the same place satellites disintegrate may be significant.

Extrapolating into the future, Solter worries that satellite debris could weaken Earth’s magnetic field–the same magnetic field that protects us from cosmic rays and solar storms.

“It’s a textbook undergraduate physics problem,” she explains. “Suppose you put a conductive shell (satellite debris) around a spherical magnet (Earth). Outside the shell, the magnetic field goes to zero due to shielding effects. This is a highly simplified comparison, of course, but we might actually be doing this to our planet.”  

Solter’s preliminary study appears to show that the space industry is indeed perturbing the environment.  “It is very concerning,” she concludes. “We absolutely cannot dump endless amounts of conductive dust into the magnetosphere and not expect some kind of impact. Multidisciplinary studies of this pollution are urgently needed.”

For more information, you can read Solter’s original research here.

Jan. 29, 2024: Energetic protons from the sun are striking the top of Earth’s atmosphere today following a strong solar flare during the early hours of Jan. 29th. This is called a “radiation storm,” and it is currently a category S2 event. Such a storm can cause elevated levels of radiation in airplanes flying over Earth’s poles and unwanted glitches in the electronics of Earth-orbiting satellites.

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the M6.8-class solar flare, which started this storm:

The source of the flare was departing sunspot AR3559. Not all flares cause radiation storms, but this one did because the sunspot is unusually well connected to Earth.

That may seem counterintuitive, because the sunspot is not directly facing our planet. However, when sunspots are near the sun’s western limb (as AR3559 is), they can link to Earth magnetically. Take a look at this diagram, and you’ll understand why. It’s called “the Parker Spiral.” Protons accelerated by the flare are now following the Parker Spiral toward Earth and raining down on our atmosphere.

NOAA’s GOES-18 satellite is recording the protons as they pass by en route to Earth:

The three colors represent different energy ranges. Blue and green are especially noteworthy; they trace the most energetic protons capable of penetrating the metal hulls of satellites and aircraft. A significant pulse of these “hard” protons was recorded in the hours immediately after the flare.

The explosion also hurled a CME into space, shown here in a coronagraph animation from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):

The many speckles in the animation are solar protons striking the spacecraft’s camera. It is a sign and side-effect of the radiation storm. A NASA model of the CME suggests it will graze Earth during the early hours of Jan. 31st. Confirmation awaits independent modeling by NOAA.

Jan. 9, 2024: (Spaceweather.com) Last month, sky watchers in Europe saw something rare and beautiful. A giant bank of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) escaped the Arctic Circle, and for more than a week they filled skies with rainbow color as far south as Italy. In the Italian comune of Sanfrè (latitude +45N), Pablo Javier Lucero was able to photograph the clouds at all hours of the day:

“Utterly incredible!” says Lucero. “I first saw the clouds at sunset on Dec. 22nd. After talking with a friend of mine, Jorgelina Alvarez, a meteorologist, we realized that these weren’t ordinary iridescent clouds, but rather Type II polar stratospheric clouds. My surprise was gigantic.”

Surprise is the correct reaction. Normally, Earth’s stratosphere has no clouds at all. Only when the temperature drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C can widely-spaced water molecules assemble into icy polar stratospheric clouds. With colors that rival auroras, PSCs are considered to be the most beautiful clouds on Earth.

During the outbreak, Spaceweather.com received hundreds of photos of PSCs. Curiously, they all came from Europe. Not a single cloud was sighted in North America or Asia. Why not?

Amy Butler of NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Laboratory has the answer: “The polar vortex can wobble like a top, and in December it was displaced towards Europe,” she explains. “You can see this in the figure below from Zac Lawrence’s website stratobserve.com.”

Cold air normally contained over the poles was carried by the wobbling vortex to mid-latitudes. Purple and green contours in the figure show where temperatures were cold enough for Type I and Type II PSCs, respectively.

Since the December outbreak of PSCs, which ended around Christmas, the polar stratosphere has warmed more than 30 degrees Celsius. Butler says this is probably the result of “a strong planetary wave breaking in the stratosphere.” Wave energy warmed the air and dispersed the rainbow-colored clouds.

The clouds might return. As January unfolds, the polar stratospheric vortex is still tilted toward mid-latitudes in Europe. If the stratosphere cools again, PSCs could re-appear over many populated areas. You can monitor the situation with daily temperature reports right here on Spaceweather.com.

Recommended: Amy Butler writes a great Polar Vortex Blog for NOAA. Check it out!

Dec. 24, 2023: (Spaceweather.com) Now we know why polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) have suddenly exploded. According to NASA’s MERRA-2 climate model, temperatures in the Arctic stratosphere just hit a 40-year record low for the month of December:

Cold air in the stratosphere is exactly what PSCs require. Normally, the stratosphere has no clouds at all. But when the temperature drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C, widely-spaced water molecules coalesce into ice crystals and PSCs begin to form. Their aurora-like colors make them the most beautiful clouds on Earth.

PSCs are normally confined to the Arctic where the stratosphere is coldest. During this week’s extreme cold wave, the clouds descended all the way to mid-latitudes. Here they are over Locarno, Switzerland (+46N):

“I saw these clouds for the first time on Dec. 22nd,” says photographer Branca Cristina. “The colors were amazing!”

At the same time, the clouds were sighted in Torun, Italy (+45N); the next morning they appeared again in Lausanne, Switzerland (+47N). These are extraordinary excursions from normal PSC habitat.

The season for PSCs usually starts in January. The current cold wave has given the season an early start, and could herald many more PSCs in the weeks ahead. To help sky watchers catch these rare clouds, we will henceforth publish daily predictions of temperatures in the Arctic stratosphere. When the air temperature drops below the “Type II PSC” green line, it’s time to look for PSCs. Check out the forecast here.

Dec. 17, 2023: (Spaceweather.com) A cold wave just swept through the Arctic stratosphere. Really cold. We know because on Dec. 17th these colorful clouds appeared over Sweden:

Above: A “PSC selfie” by Lights over Lapland driver Dimitrios Roukounakis

“It’s that magical time of year again,” says Chad Blakley, owner of the aurora tour guide service Lights over Lapland in Abisko, Sweden. “We just witnessed a spectacular display of polar stratospheric clouds.”

Widely considered to be the most beautiful clouds on Earth, polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are rare. Earth’s stratosphere is very dry and normally it has no clouds at all. PSCs form when the temperature in the Arctic stratosphere drops to a staggeringly-low -85 C. Then, and only then, can widely-spaced water molecules begin to coalesce into tiny ice crystals. High-altitude sunlight shining through the crystals creates intense iridescent colors that can rival auroras.

NASA forecast models of the polar stratosphere show that temperatures have indeed dropped into the very low range required for colorful Type II PSCs:

Above: Note the temperature dip inside the highlighted yellow oval

During a typical Arctic winter, PSCs appear no more than a handful of times, and the first sightings usually come in January. The apparition on Dec. 17th marks an early start, and may herald many more PSCs to come. Stay tuned!

more images: from Pekka Lähteenmäki of Helsinki, Finland; from Alan C. Tough of Elgin, Moray, Scotland

Dec. 13, 2023: (Spaceweather.com): Every great mystery novel has an unexpected twist. Apparently the same is true of meteor showers.

A paper published in the Planetary Science Journal reports a surprising new twist in the mystery of the Geminids, a strong annual meteor shower that has puzzled astronomers for more than a century.

“Our work has upended years of belief about 3200 Phaethon, the source of the Geminids,” says co-author Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab. “It’s not what we thought it was.”

Above: Geminids over the Czech Republic in 2018. Credit: Petr Horálek

The Geminids peak every year in mid-December, scattering hundreds of bright meteors across northern winter skies. Numerically it is the best meteor shower of the year.

As meteor showers go, Geminids are newcomers. They first appeared in the mid-1800s when an unknown stream of debris crossed Earth’s orbit.  Surprised, 19th century astronomers scoured the sky for the parent comet, but they found nothing. The search would continue for another 100 years.

Enter NASA. In 1983, the space agency’s Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) found an object now called “3200 Phaethon.” It was definitely the source of the Geminids. The orbit of 3200 Phaethon was such a close match to that of the Geminid debris stream, no other conclusion was possible. Yet here was a puzzler: 3200 Phaethon appeared to be a rocky asteroid.

Above: An artist’s concept of 3200 Phaethon

Asteroids are not supposed to make meteor showers. Unlike comets, they don’t have tails and they don’t spew meteoroids. Yet 3200 Phaethon was different. In 2009 and 2012, NASA’s STEREO spacecraft caught 3200 Phaethon sprouting a tail when it passed close to the sun. Apparently, intense solar radiation was blistering meteoroids off 3200 Phaethon’s rocky surface. Astronomers dubbed it a “rock comet,” and the mystery was solved.

Or was it?

Astronomer Qicheng Zhang, lead author of the new paper, was never convinced. For one thing, the Geminid debris stream is massive (10¹³ kg), while the tail of 3200 Phaethon is puny, providing less than 1% of the mass required to explain the Geminids.

“The tail we see today could never supply enough dust to supply the Geminid meteor shower,” says Zhang.

Zhang, Battams, and colleagues decided to take a closer look. Using coronagraphs on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), they monitored Phaethon as it passed by the sun in 2022. Color filters on the spacecraft revealed no dust or rock. Instead, Phaethon’s tail is made of sodium gas.

Above: SOHO’s orange-filtered view (left), which can detect sodium, shows asteroid 3200 Phaethon glowing brightly.

And therein lies the twist. Meteor showers are made of meteoroids, not gas. Suddenly, the Geminids are a mystery again.

“We’re back to square one,” says Zhang. “Where do the Geminids come from?”

3200 Phaethon is still the main suspect. At least one study suggests that Geminid meteoroids are 1,000 to 10,000 years old. Perhaps something hit the asteroid millennia ago. Phaethon’s rapid rotation makes it susceptible to sudden episodes of mass loss, so even a relatively small impact could create the necessary meteoroids.

The best way to test this idea is to look at the surface of Phaethon with a space probe. Japan plans to do just that. JAXA is building a spacecraft called DESTINY+ to fly by 3200 Phaethon for a closer look. Launch is scheduled for 2025.

Until then, the Geminids remain a beautiful mystery. Look for them streaking across the night sky this week!

Dec. 10, 2023: (Spaceweather.com) For years, astronomers have worried that Betelgeuse might explode. Instead, it’s about to disappear. On Dec. 11th (USA) and 12th (Europe), main belt asteroid Leona will pass directly in front of Betelgeuse, a first-magnitude star in the shoulder of Orion. Millions of people in a narrow path stretching from South Florida to Italy and Greece can look up and see the red giant dim or even vanish.

Google Earth: Click to view an interactive map of the occultation path

“This represents an extraordinary and unique opportunity to analyze the diameter and brightness distribution of Betelgeuse with extreme angular resolution,” says astronomer J. L. Ortiz of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, lead author of a newly-released preprint about the occultation.

Betelgeuse is not a typical star. Its diameter is 760 times the sun’s, so it appears as a disk 40 milliarcseconds across the sky, much larger than most other stars. High resolution images of Betelgeuse seem to reveal a star in turmoil with giant convection cells bubbling up to the surface. The passage of the asteroid across Betelgeuse may allow astronomers to map these cells and evaluate their role in a possible future supernova explosion.

Above: Images of Betelgeuse taken by the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope

Much is unknown about this occultation. The shape of the asteroid itself is an X-factor. In Sept. 2023, Ortiz and colleagues watched the asteroid occult another star from 17 different locations on Earth. They found that Leona has an oblong shape with dimensions 80 x 55 km, whereas most predictions of the occultation assume the asteroid to be spherical. Leona’s odd shape, plus the fact that it is rotating, could produce some surprises. The occultation path may be wider than expected, and there could be interesting “partial eclipse” effects visible even near the center of the path.

There are huge population centers in the occultation path, especially in south Florida where Leona’s shadow crosses Miami and Fort Lauderdale. For observers there, Betelgeuse will wink out for about 10 seconds on the evening of Dec. 11th just before 8:25 pm Eastern Standard Time. In Europe, the occultation happens on Dec. 12th between 1:10 UT and 1:16 UT. To find out when to look from your location, we recommend downloading this excellent Google Earth file; when viewing the map, click on the little dots for occultation times.

Amateur astronomers who wish to collect research quality light curves are encouraged to read these observing tips from the International Occultation Timing Association. For casual naked-eye observers, here’s a simple sky map.

Nov. 20, 2023: There’s a new phenomenon in the night sky: “SpaceX auroras.” They’re red, roughly spherical, and brightly visible to the naked eye for as much as 10 minutes at a time. “We are seeing 2 to 5 of them each month,” reports Stephen Hummel of the McDonald Observatory in Texas, who photographed this one on Nov. 3rd:

Spoiler alert: They’re not auroras. The bright red balls are caused by SpaceX rockets burning their engines in the ionosphere.

The phenomenon is closely related to something we reported earlier this year. Falcon 9 rockets leaving Earth can “punch a hole in the ionosphere.” The ionosphere is a layer of ionized gas surrounding our planet; it is crucial to over-the-horizon shortwave radio communication and can affect the quality of GPS signals. Water-filled rocket exhaust can quench local ionization by as much as 70%, erasing the ionosphere along the rocket’s path. For reasons having to do with chemistry, ionospheric holes emit a red glow (630 nm).

“SpaceX auroras” are exactly the same–except instead of rockets going up, they are caused by rockets coming down. The second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket burns its engines in order to de-orbit and return to Earth, creating an ionospheric hole as it descends.

“We first noticed these SpaceX de-orbit burns over the McDonald Observatory in February 2023,” says Boston University space physicist Jeff Baumgarder, who has been studying ionospheric holes for more than 40 years. “The engine burns are only about 2 seconds long, just enough delta V to bring the second stage down over the south Atlantic Ocean.  These burns happen ~90 minutes ( ~one orbital period) after launch.  During the burn, the engine releases about 400lbs of exhaust gasses, mostly water and carbon dioxide.  All this happens at ~300km altitude, near the peak of the ionosphere, so a significant hole is made.”

“The resulting ‘auroras’ can be very bright, easily visible with the naked eye and much brighter than Starlink satellites themselves, although only for a few seconds,” notes Hummel.

The question is, are SpaceX auroras good or bad?

Hummel is the McDonald Observatory Dark Skies Sr. Outreach Program Coordinator, so naturally he’s concerned about the effect these events may have on observational astronomy.

“The frequency of these red clouds could increase as SpaceX targets more launches in the future,” says Hummel. “Their impact on astronomical science is still being evaluated. Starlink satellites are a known issue, but the effects of the rocket launches themselves are a growing area of attention.”

For Jeff Baumgarder, who has his own dedicated camera at McDonald, the events are a golden opportunity for research.

“The saying ‘one person’s signal is another person’s noise’ is appropriate here,” says Baumgardner. “We are delighted with the rocket burns. They give us an opportunity to explore how space traffic affects the ionosphere. The ionospheric density is different night to night, so we can learn something about the efficiency of the chemistry by observing many events.”

Other sky watchers are beginning to see SpaceX auroras as well. Are you one of them? Submit your pictures here.