April 3, 2022: A filament of magnetism whipsawed out of the sun’s atmosphere today. On the way out it carved a gigantic canyon of fire. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the eruption:
The glowing walls of the canyon are at least 20,000 km high and 10 times as long. They trace the channel where the filament (R.I.P.) was previously suspended by magnetic forces inside the sun’s atmosphere.
Debris from the explosion formed a slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME), shown here in a movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):
The CME is not squarely Earth-directed. The bulk of the cloud is expected to miss. However, there is clearly a small Earth-directed component, which could sideswipe our planet’s magnetic field on April 7th. (Update: It arrived on April 8th instead.)
April 5, 2022: New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that Solar Cycle 25 is racing ahead of the official forecast–and the gap is growing:
Sunspot counts have now exceeded predictions for 18 straight months. The monthly value at the end of March was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in nearly 7 years.
The “official forecast” comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of scientists representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). The Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.
In March 2022, the sun produced 146 solar flares, including one X-flare and 13 M-flares. Auroras were sighted as far south as Colorado (+38N) and Nebraska (+42N). Multiple shortwave radio blackouts disrupted communications on ships at sea and airplanes flying over the poles. If current trends continue, April will be even busier. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts:SMS Text
April 2, 2022: On March 30th, the sun did two seemingly contradictory things at once. It produced a loud radio burst and, at the same time, caused a deep radio blackout. Both were side-effects of an X1.3-class solar flare. First, let’s listen to the radio burst:
The gentle roar of static you just heard emerged from the loudspeaker of a shortwave radio receiver in New Mexico. Amateur astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded it. “The sun was well positioned in my radio antennas for the X1.3 solar flare,” says Ashcraft. “The left channel of the audio file is 22.2 MHz, the right channel is 21.1 MHz.”
This is a Type II solar radio burst. Shock waves from the flare rippled through the sun’s atmosphere, creating plasma oscillations that emit shortwave static. Briefly, the sun turned itself into a natural radio transmitter.
While the sun was busy creating radio waves, it was equally busy wiping them out. Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth’s atmosphere, preventing terrestrial radio stations from bouncing their signals over the horizon as usual. This map shows where manmade signals suddenly faded:
Ashcraft’s observatory in New Mexico is located near the middle of the blackout zone. Take another look at his dynamic spectrum. Horizontal lines are terrestrial radio stations. They vanished for about 10 minutes around the time of the flare. The effect is strongest at frequencies below ~20 MHz.
In Gainesville, Florida, radio astronomer Francisco Reyes recorded the blackout as well. “I used an array of 4 dipoles with an FSX-7 radio spectrograph (Radio JOVE),” he says.
Would you like to record an event like this? NASA’s Radio JOVE program makes it easy. Off-the-shelf radio telescope kits allow even novices to monitor radio outbursts from the sun, which are becoming more frequent as Solar Cycle 25 intensifies. Solar flare alerts:SMS Text
The first CME in this movie was produced by an M4-class flare at 1129 UT. It departed the sun traveling 1259 km/s. The second CME was produced by an M1-class flare at 1923 UT. It departed even faster, traveling ~1700 km/s.
A NOAA computer model suggests that the second CME will overtake the first, merging into a single “Cannibal CME” before striking Earth’s magnetic field around 0300 UT on March 31st.
Cannibal CMEs are fast coronal mass ejections that sweep up slower CMEs in front of them. This NASA movie shows what happens. The mish-mash contains tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms.
If the NOAA model is correct, the density of solar wind plasma around Earth could increase 10-fold when the CME arrives, while the solar wind speed will top 700 km/s. These events would set the stage for G2– to G3-class geomagnetic storms.
Observing tips: North Americans should be alert for auroras after local nightfall on March 30th. For Europeans, the hours before dawn on March 31st are favored. When chasing auroras, dark skies are essential; go to the countryside. Urban glare can overwhelm auroras even during a strong geomagnetc storm. Aurora alerts:SMS Text.
March 23, 2022: Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying–and Earth’s upper atmosphere is responding.
“The Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) is going up rapidly right now,” reports Linda Hunt of Science Systems and Applications, Inc. “It has nearly tripled in the past year.”
TCI is a number published daily by NASA, which tells us how hot Earth’s upper atmosphere is. The thermosphere, the very highest layer of our atmosphere, literally touches space and is a sort of “first responder” to solar activity. Hunt created this plot showing how TCI has unfolded during the last 7 solar cycles. Solar Cycle 25 (shown in blue) is just getting started:
“So far Solar Cycle 25 is well ahead of the pace of Solar Cycle 24,” notes Hunt. If this trend continues, the thermosphere could soon hit a 20-year high in temperature.
Before we go any farther, a word of caution: This does not mean Earth itself is about to heat up. The thermosphere is hundreds of kilometers above our heads. Here on the planet’s surface we do not feel its heat; summer days are no warmer when TCI is “hot.” As Dr. Marty Mlynczak of NASA notes, “energy driving the climate system near Earth’s surface is hundreds of thousands of times greater than in the thermosphere.” As far as we know, cyclical warming and cooling of the thermosphere by the solar cycle does not affect climate.
Nevertheless, the thermosphere is important. When it heats up, as it is doing now, it also puffs up. Think of a marshmallow held over a campfire. The thermosphere can expand upward so much it actually touches Earth-orbiting satellites. Almost 40 Starlink satellites fell out of the sky earlier this year as a result of aerodynamic drag up there.
TCI might also have some predictive value. Hunt’s plot shows that the index is on an upward trajectory that most closely mimics Solar Cycle 20, which peaked back in the 1970s. Coincidentally, a new prediction for Solar Cycle 25 based on the arrival of the Termination Event suggests the same thing: It could look a lot like Solar Cycle 20–an above-average cycle with plenty of solar activity.
You can follow the progress of TCI as Solar Cycle 25 unfolds. It is published every day right here on Spaceweather.com.
TCI is the “Thermosphere Climate Index”, a number NASA publishes every day to keep track of the temperature at the top of Earth’s atmosphere–a layer of gas researchers call “the thermosphere.”
“The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum–and it warms up again during Solar Maximum,” explains Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet.”
When the thermosphere warms, it expands, literally increasing the radius of Earth’s atmosphere. This expansion increases aerodynamic drag on satellites in low-Earth orbit, which can bring them down prematurely. When the thermosphere cools, it shrinks; satellites get a reprieve.
Mlynczak and colleagues recently introduced the “Thermosphere Climate Index” (TCI)–a number expressed in Watts that tells how much heat nitrogen oxide (NO) molecules in the thermosphere are dumping into space. During Solar Maximum, TCI is high (“Hot”); during Solar Minimum, it is low (“Cold”).
Above: An historical record of the Thermosphere Climate Index. Mlynczak and colleagues recently published a paper on the TCI showing that the state of the thermosphere can be discussed using a set of five plain language terms: Cold, Cool, Neutral, Warm, and Hot.
TCI is based on measurements from the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air 100 to 300 kilometers above our planet’s surface. By measuring the infrared glow of these molecules, SABER can assess the thermal state of gas up there.
Although SABER has been in orbit for only 17 years, Mlynczak and colleagues recently calculated TCI going all the way back to the 1940s. “SABER taught us to do this by revealing how TCI depends on other variables such as geomagnetic activity and the sun’s UV output–things that have been measured for decades,” he explains.
March 17, 2022: The March 13th CME did more than spark bright auroras. It also wiped out a lot of cosmic rays. Neutron monitors at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, recorded a sharp drop in cosmic radiation just after the CME arrived:
This is called a “Forbush decrease,” named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a coronal mass ejection (CME) sweeps past Earth and pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper Earth’s upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.
There’s something odd about this Forbush decrease. It’s a double dip decrease. Cosmic rays dropped precipitously on March 13th–then they surged midday on March 14th–then they dropped precipitously again. The up-and-down may be a sign of structure inside the CME.
As Solar Cycle 25 intensifies, more and more CMEs will sweep past Earth. Forbush decreases will become increasingly common and may even begin to overlap. This will cause a persistent decline in cosmic rays around our planet.
A recent paper in the Astrophysical Journal looked at the last two solar cycles and compared the daily rate of CMEs to the strength of cosmic rays. The plot, above, shows the results. At the peak of Solar Cycle 24, the sun was spitting out more than 5 CMEs per day; at the same time, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) dropped more than 60%.
Evidence is mounting that new Solar Cycle 25 will be stronger than Solar Cycle 24. If so, CMEs will be more abundant and cosmic rays even more depressed–a welcome reduction for astronauts, air travelers, and even some mountain climbers.
Meanwhile, the March 13th Forbush decrease is still underway. Cosmic rays remain depressed 4 full days after the CME arrived.
March 4, 2022: A recent display of auroras over Canada has experts scratching their heads. The mystery? They were orange. Pilot Matt Melnyk was flying 36,000 feet over Canada on Feb. 23rd when he saw the strangely-colored lights from the cockpit window:
“I have been chasing and photographing auroras for more than 13 years (often from airplanes) and this is the first time I have ever seen orange,” says Melnyk.
What’s so strange about orange? Joe Minow of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center explains: “Theoretically, nitrogen and oxygen (N2, N2+, and O2+) can produce emissions at orange wavelengths, but these are typically weak compared to stronger emissions from the same molecules at the red end of the spectrum. It is hard to understand how orange could dominate in an auroral display.”
Even so, Melnyk says “these appeared to be real auroras.” The orange fringe danced in sync with regular red and green auroras overhead. It did not appear to be an artifact of city lights or distant twilight. Moreover, Melnyk saw the orange color with his naked eye, and his camera recorded it, too.
Kjellmar Oksavik, a space physicist at the University Center in Svalbard (UNIS), has an idea: “Normally, auroras are produced by electrons with energies less than 10 keV. Raining down from space, they stop an an altitude of 100 km where the dominant color is green (caused by electrons hitting oxygen). During strong activity, however, electrons can reach energies of 20 keV and even higher. These electrons penetrate deeper, all the way down to 80-100 km. Here nitrogen molecules dominate, with multiple emission lines in blue, purple, orange, red and magenta.”
“I think this is what is happening in the picture,” says Oksavik. “On this particular day the precipitating electrons were so energized that they reached deeper into the atmosphere (probably 80-90 km) where nitrogen molecules emitted a wide range of colors, that combines into what looks like an orange glow.”
Oksavik’s colleague Fred Sigernes, chief of the UNIS Aurora Observatory, agrees with Oksavik, but also wonders “why have we never observed this up here with our cameras in Svalbard?” It’s a mystery, indeed.
Feb. 26, 2022: Something big just happened on the sun. Solar physicists Scott McIntosh (NCAR) and Bob Leamon (U. Maryland-Baltimore County) call it “The Termination Event.”
“Old Solar Cycle 24 has finally died–it was terminated!” says McIntosh. “Now the new solar cycle, Solar Cycle 25, can really take off.”
The “Termination Event” is a new idea in solar physics, outlined by McIntosh and Leamon in a December 2020 paper in the journal Solar Physics. Not everyone accepts it–yet. If Solar Cycle 25 unfolds as McIntosh and Leamon predict, the Termination Event will have to be taken seriously.
The basic idea is this: Solar Cycle 25 (SC25) started in Dec. 2019. However, old Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) refused to go away. It hung on for two more years, producing occasional old-cycle sunspots and clogging the sun’s upper layers with its decaying magnetic field. During this time, the two cycles coexisted, SC25 struggling to break free while old SC24 held it back.
“Solar Cycle 24 was cramping Solar Cycle 25’s style,” says Leamon.
Researchers have long known that solar cycles can overlap. The twist added by McIntosh and Leamon is the realization that overlapping cycles interact. This makes sense. In the early 20th century, George Ellery Hale discovered that the magnetic polarity of sunspot pairs reverses itself from one cycle to the next; indeed, the sun’s entire global magnetic field flips every ~11 years. When adjacent, opposite-polarity solar cycles overlap, they naturally interfere.
Termination Events mark the end of interference, when a new cycle can break free of the old.
The timing of the Termination Event can predict the intensity of the new cycle. In their Solar Physics paper, McIntosh and Leamon looked back over 270 years of sunspot data and found that Termination Events happen every 10 to 15 years.
“We found that the longer the time between terminators, the weaker the next cycle would be,” explains Leamon. “Conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle would be.”
So when did the latest Termination Event happen? Dec. 2021. This yields a specific, testable prediction for Solar Cycle 25.
“We have finalized our forecast of SC25’s amplitude,” says McIntosh. “It will be just above the historical average with a monthly smoothed sunspot number of 190 ± 20.”
“Above average” may not sound exciting, but this is in fact a sharp departure from NOAA’s official forecast of a weak solar cycle. It could be just enough to catapult Terminators into the forefront of solar cycle prediction techniques.
Feb. 17, 2022: New images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) are giving us a better look at yesterday’s farside explosion. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the most dramatic CME in years:
No, there won’t be a geomagnetic storm. The explosion happened on the farside of the sun, so the CME is heading away from Earth. We dodged a bullet.
Some readers have asked “How strong was the underlying solar flare?” We don’t know. Solar flares are classified by their X-ray output, but there are no spacecraft on the farside of the sun with X-ray sensors. Best guess: It was an X-flare.
You might suppose that the farside of the sun is hidden from view. However, researchers using a technique called “helioseismology” can make crude maps of the sun’s hidden hemisphere. Their latest map reveals a huge farside active region:
The black blob is a sunspot group–a big one–and it is the likely source of the explosion. According to Junwei Zhao of Stanford University’s helioseismology group, active regions this large are rare. “This is only the second farside active region of this size since September 2017,” he says.
Lucas Guliano, a solar scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, believes the active region might be an old friend: AR2936, a sunspot that was on the Earthside of the sun in early February.
Apparently it has grown since then. Based on its current location, the sunspot could emerge into view over the sun’s northeastern limb about 4 days from now. It could be quite a sight, so stay tuned. Solar flare alerts:SMS Text.