The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle

May 6, 2025: (Spaceweather.com) If you’ve been enjoying the auroras of Solar Cycle 25, we’ve got good news. The next few solar cycles could be even more intense–the result of a little-known phenomenon called the “Centennial Gleissberg Cycle.”

You’ve probably heard of the 11-year sunspot cycle. The Gleissberg Cycle is a slower modulation, which suppresses sunspot numbers every 80 to 100 years. For the past ~15 years, the sun has been near a low point in this cycle, but this is about to change.

New research published in the journal Space Weather suggests that the Gleissberg Cycle is waking up again. If this is true, solar cycles for the next 50 years could become increasingly intense.

“We have been looking at protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly,” explains the paper’s lead author Kalvyn Adams, an astrophysics student at the University of Colorado. “These are particles from the sun that come unusually close to Earth because our planet’s magnetic shield is weak over the south Atlantic Ocean.”


Above: The South Atlantic Anomaly (blue) is a weak spot in Earth’s magnetic field where particles from the sun can come relatively close to Earth [more]

It turns out that protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly are a “canary in a coal mine” for the Gleissberg Cycle. When these protons decrease, it means the Gleissberg Cycle is about to surge. “That’s exactly what we found,” says Adams. “The protons are clearly decreasing in measurements we obtained from NOAA’s Polar Operational Environmental Satellites.”

Protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly are just the latest in a growing body of evidence suggesting that the “Gleissberg Minimum” has passed. Current sunspot counts are up; the sun’s ultraviolet output has increased; and the overall level of solar activity in Solar Cycle 25 has exceeded forecasts. It all adds up to an upswing in the 100-year cycle.

It also means that Joan Feyman was right. Before she passed away in 2020, the pioneering solar physicist was a leading researcher of the Gleissberg Cycle, and she firmly believed that the centennial oscillation was responsible for the remarkable weakness of Solar Cycle 24 (2012-2013). In a seminal paper published in 2014, she argued that the minimum of the Gleissberg Cycle fell almost squarely on top of Solar Cycle 24, making it the weakest cycle in 100 years. The tide was about to turn.

The resurgence of the Gleissberg Cycle makes a clear prediction for the future: Solar Cycles 26 through 28 should be progressively intense. Solar Cycle 26, peaking in ~2036, would be stronger than current Solar Cycle 25, and so on. The projected maximum of the Gleissberg Cycle is around 2055, aligning more or less with Solar Cycle 28. That cycle could be quite intense.

“With a major increase in launch rates, it’ll be important to plan for changes to the space environment that thousands of satellites and spacecraft are flying through from all sides,” says Adams. “Solar activity and particle fluxes could all be very different in the decades ahead.”

For more information, read Adams’s original research here.

Space Hurricanes Are Real

Aug. 1, 2025 (Spaceweather.com): Hurricane season just got worse. Chinese researchers have discovered a new kind of storm at the edge of space. They call it a “space hurricane.”

The first known example appeared in Defense Meteorological Satellite (DMSP) images on Aug. 20, 2014. A massive swirl of charged particles appeared above the North Pole. Spinning silently, it resembled a terrestrial hurricane in shape, with spiral arms and a calm “eye” glowing with auroral light. A detailed study of this event was published in the July 2025 edition of Space Weather.

Above: A ‘ space hurricane’ observed by DMSP satellites. Note the eye and spiral arms.

“The space hurricane formed during very quiet conditions,” says lead author Sheng Lu of Shandong University. “Solar activity was low.” 

Most researchers had overlooked these events because they weren’t linked to solar storms. This team looked for auroras under calm conditions and found something new. The DMSP F17 satellite flew through the space hurricane’s center; ten minutes later, SWARM B crossed the edge. Their data confirmed the hurricane was an active electrodynamic storm, not just an auroral display.

The hurricane’s effects mimicked those of actual geomagnetic storms. Using GPS data from the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network, the researchers found that satellite signals passing through the hurricane’s edge experienced strong phase scintillations–a type of “twinkling” that can reduce GPS accuracy. Meanwhile, ground-based magnetometers in Greenland recorded sharp shifts in Earth’s magnetic field as large as 400 nT–comparable to a G1-class geomagnetic storm.

Above: The anatomy of a space hurricane. Credit: Lu et al (2025) [Expand]

Savvy aurora chasers know that the best time to catch Northern Lights is when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) tilts south. This opens a hole in Earth’s magnetosphere, allowing solar wind to enter. We tend to ignore times when the IMF tilts north and closes the door. Yet that is precisely when space hurricanes form, according to the study. 

Space hurricanes are stealthy, appearing when traditional metrics of space weather forecasting indicate little of interest. Note to forecasters: Not all storms come from the sun.

Want to learn more? Read the original research here.

The Bastille Day Event, 25 Years Later

July 14, 2025: You know a solar flare is strong when even the Voyager spacecraft feel it. Twenty-five years ago, on July 14, 2000, the sun unleashed one of the most powerful solar storms of the Space Age—an event so intense, its shockwaves rippled all the way to the edge of the solar system.

Voyager 2 felt the explosion 180 days later; Voyager 1, 245 days. The debris was still coherent and traveling faster than 600 km/s (1.9 million mph) when it slammed into the two spacecraft—then more than 9 billion kilometers from the sun.

Here on Earth, the effects were almost immediate. Within minutes, extreme ultraviolet and X-ray radiation bathed our planet and its satellites. Ground-based sensors registered a rare GLE (ground-level event) as energetic particles cascaded through the atmosphere.

“People flying in commercial jets at high latitudes would have received double their usual radiation dose,” recalled Clive Dyer of the University of Surrey Space Centre. “It was quite an energetic event—one of the strongest of its time.”

Because the flare happened on July 14th, it’s called “The Bastille Day Event” after France’s national holiday. However, auroras did not appear until the following day, July 15th, when a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrived. The 1500 km/s impact triggered an extreme geomagnetic storm (Kp=9).

Above: Auroras on July 15, 2000, photographed by (left) Ronnie Sherrill in North Carolina and (right) NASA’s IMAGE spacecraft.

In New York, Lou Michael Moure remembers his sky catching fire: “I was living on Long Island. A family member ran into my room, shouting about ‘the sky on fire.’ Sure enough, the sky blazed white, green, then red from horizon to horizon.” In North Carolina, Uwe Heine was doing yardwork when bright red auroras appeared straight overhead: “I told our neighbor those weren’t sunset colors. It was an aurora—and super rare this far south!”

By the time the storm ended on July 16th, auroras had been sighted as far south as Texas, Florida, and even Mexico.

The Bastille Day Event was important because, for the first time in history, spacecraft throughout the solar system were equipped with instruments capable of studying such a storm. Most notably, it was the first major solar storm observed by SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, which gave researchers an unprecedented look at how extreme flares unfold and evolve.

Above: SOHO images of the X5.7-class Bastille Day solar flare (left) and CME (right). “Snow” in the images is a result of energetic protons hitting the spacecraft

Later studies described how an X5.7-class flare, erupting near the center of the solar disk, released 10³³ ergs of magnetic energy—equivalent to a thousand billion WWII-era atomic bombs. The resulting CME generated a massive barrier of magnetic field and plasma, which swept away galactic cosmic rays as it raced through the heliosphere. Even the Voyagers felt this unusual dip in cosmic radiation, known as a Forbush Decrease.

Could it happen again? It could happen again this week. We’re currently near the peak of Solar Cycle 25, and another X-flare is well within the realm of possibility.

Happy Bastille Day.

Rocks and Soil Electrified by the May 10th Superstorm

May 23, 2024: (Spaceweather.com) Across the USA on May 10th and 11th, sky watchers marveled at bright displays of aurora borealis during the biggest geomagnetic storm in decades. Little did they know, something was also happening underfoot.

Strong electrical currents were surging through rocks and soil. The biggest voltages along the US eastern seaboard and in the Midwest were as much as 10,000 times normal. A map from NOAA and the US Geological Survey shows some of the ‘hot spots’ during the early hours of May 11th:

Back in March 1989, voltages only a little stronger than the ones shown above brought down the entire Hydro-Québec power system. The resulting Great Québec Blackout plunged millions of Canadians into darkness.

This time, however, power grids stayed up. “We haven’t heard of any serious problems so far,” reports Christopher Balch of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

Balch leads an effort at NOAA to model geoelectric fields during solar storms. The map, above, is a snapshot from a real-time display that takes into account the 3D conductivity of the Earth and ongoing geomagnetic activity. A computer at the Space Weather Prediction Center crunches the data to produce minute-by-minute estimates of electricity in the ground.

When researchers talk about geoelectric fields they use units of volts per km (V/km). Earth’s crust naturally contains quiet-time fields measuring as little as 0.01 V/km. During geomagnetic storms, these values skyrocket.

“On May 10-11, geoelectric amplitudes exceeded 10 V/km in Virginia and 9 V/km in the upper Midwest,” says Jeffrey Love, a key member of the collaboration at the USGS. “These are very high. For comparison, we estimate that geoelectric amplitudes reached almost 22 V/km in Virginia during the March 1989 storm.”

This means the May 2024 storm was, electrically speaking, about half as intense as the storm that blacked out Québec 35 years ago. That’s too close for comfort. “Although power companies have taken measures to improve the resilience of their systems, no one would welcome another storm as intense as that of March 1989,” says Love.

Realtime electric field maps are published 24/7 on the NOAA website. During the next geomagnetic storm, click here to see what’s happening underfoot!

South Pacific Auroras Confirm May 10th Was a Great Storm

May 16, 2024: On the south Pacific island of New Caledonia, no one expects to see auroras. Ever. Situated about halfway between Tonga and Australia, the cigar-shaped island is too close to the equator for Northern or Southern Lights. Yet on May 10, 2024, this happened:

“I have rarely been so happy when taking a photo!” says Frédéric Desmoulins, who photographed the display from Boulouparis in the island’s south province. “I could see the red color of the auroras with my naked eye. According to the New Caledonian Astronomy Society, these photos are the first for this territory.”

“The auroral visibility from New Caledonia is really unique and extremely valuable,” says Hisashi Hayakawa, a space weather researcher at Japan’s Nagoya University. “As far as we know, the last time sky watchers saw auroras in the area was during the Carrington Event of Sept. 1859, when auroras were sighted from a ship in the Coral Sea.”

Hayakawa specializes in historical studies of great auroral storms. He tries to go back in time as far as possible. The problem is, magnetometers and modern sensors didn’t exist hundreds or thousands of years ago. Instead, he looks for records of aurora sightings in old newspapers, diaries, ships logs, even cuneiform tablets. Great Storms are identified by their low latitude–anything with naked-eye auroras below 30° MLAT (magnetic latitude).

“May 10th was definitely a Great Storm,” declares Hayakawa. “Naked-eye auroras sightings in New Caledonia (MLAT = -26.4°) and Puerto Rico (MLAT = 27.2°) confirm this in both hemispheres.”

In fact, it is among the top 20 Great Storms of the past 500 years. The above timeline from a research paper by Hayakawa has been modified to display the May 10th event. It is the green dot on the far-right end of the timeline.

This isn’t just an arcane historical curiosity. “We need to know about Great Storms of the past to understand how big storms might become today,” explains Hayakawa. “Our modern technological society depends upon it.”

Readers, if you witnessed auroras at low latitudes on May 10th, please submit your photos to our gallery and fill out this questionnaire from Hayakawa. Your observations may be included in a future research paper about this extreme storm.

Global Auroras on Mars

Feb 28, 2024: Earth isn’t the only planet with auroras. Mars has them, too–on a global scale.

“Mars is experiencing its greatest level of auroral activity in the past 10 years,” says Nick Schneider of the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP). “In February alone, there were three episodes of global auroras–an ‘aurora hat trick’ we’ve never seen before.”

Orbiting high above Mars, NASA’s MAVEN spacecraft recorded the auroras on 3-4 Feb, 7-10 Feb and 15-16 Feb. This animation shows the last two of these episodes in a looping time series:

Spaceweather.com actually predicted some of these events, prompted by SOHO coronagraph observations of CMEs heading toward Mars. “Your predictions came true!” says Schneider.

Schneider leads the team for MAVEN’s Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS), the instrument that detected the auroras. All the purple pixels in the animation are a false color representation of the aurora’s ultraviolet glow. Martian auroras probably have a visible light component, too, but MAVEN’s cameras are not able to see them.

Here on Earth we would love it if auroras were global. Seeing Northern Lights with equal ease from the equator and the poles would check off a lot of bucket lists. Be careful what you wish for, though. Martian auroras can be global because the Red Planet has almost no protection from solar storms. It lacks an Earth-like magnetic field, so particles from the sun penetrate its atmosphere with ease–everywhere.

The dramatic auroras of February 2024 were caused by “SEPs”–solar energetic particles. SEPs are accelerated by shock waves within approaching CMEs. When they strike Mars’s atmosphere, they cause it to glow.

“Mars is currently getting hit by roughly 1 to 2 CMEs every month, bringing a hefty supply of SEPs,” says Rebecca Jolitz, a member of the MAVEN Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) instrument team at UC Berkeley’s Space Sciences Lab. “However, a CME doesn’t actually have to hit to be effective. SEPs coming in sideways from ‘remote CMEs’ can light up the skies as well.”

Schneider and Jolitz are looking forward to the months ahead. “Solar Cycle 25 is far from over, and we expect many more CME strikes,” Schneider says. “This will give us a chance to study how solar storms affect the atmosphere of Mars–a key goal of the MAVEN mission. It’s the kind of fun we’ve been waiting for!”

Extra: Schneider notes that SEPs aren’t the only way to make auroras on Mars. Protons in the solar wind and magnetic reconnection can do the trick, too, producing their own forms and colors. Stay tuned for more stories about the rich variety of Martian auroras as Solar Cycle 25 unfolds.