Oct. 25, 2023 (Spaceweather.com): When Solar Cycle 25 began in 2020, leading forecasters thought it would be weak and slow to develop. Fast forward three years: NOAA is now predicting a quicker, stronger solar cycle. The revised forecast, published yesterday, shows Solar Max coming sometime between January and October 2024:
NOAA’s original prediction for Solar Cycle 25 is shown in pink (
), the broad band indicating the uncertainty of the forecast. It has become clear in recent years that the original prediction was too low, which prompted NOAA to issue a new one. The magenta line (
) traces the new forecast, and takes into account recent high sunspot counts.
Uncertainties in the new forecast are bounded by different shades of magenta. There is roughly a 25% chance that the smoothed sunspot number will fall within the dark-shaded region; a 50% chance it will fall in the medium-shaded region; and a 75% chance it will fall in the lightest of the shaded regions.
If this new forecast is correct, Solar Cycle 25 could land in the ballpark of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked in 2000-2001, and produced the famous Halloween Storms of 2003. However, the odds still favor Solar Cycle 25 being a bit weaker than Solar Cycle 23. Either way, next year’s Solar Max could be potent.
NOAA plans to update this new forecast every month. Check out their Space Weather Prediction Testbed for the latest prediction.
Spaceweather.com 
I love statistics!
I love doing my own too.
I have studied for many years anything from Region-history, mvh-area, solar flux, sunspotclassifications, and classifications calculated as CV, also converted the same from RGO and USAF-tables, etc.
After reading NOAA’s calculations, must say I strongly disagree!
The sun’s different milestones, including the best prediction-milestone, the onset of activity, tells me it is impossible the main solar max of solar cycle 25 can occur during any part of 2024.
My own calculations land on the period April to August, maybe even a bit later, in the year of 2025. The period that occured on most of the many different sets I made, typically land on July 2025.
The estimated level of maximum tells me we can see before us something like nearly 90 percent of the maximum of solar cycle 23.
Solar cycle 25 appears very much alike solar cycle 23. The comparisons of solar cycle 24 I have long gone put aside. We shall see a very nice maximum!
Now, for the coming period, it may seem we might have a fairly strong period in January 2024. This is in good agreement with the predictions that tell me we will see typical two maxima, where the first one in beginning of 2024 is lower than the main maximum in summer of 2025.
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